Hidden carrier, Visible Footprint

Hidden Aircraft, Visible Footprint

In the weeks before US strikes on Iran began on 28 February 2026, there were a number of signs that US military activity in the Middle East was increasing. What interested me was how much of this could be seen using normal, publicly available flight-tracking websites.

• On 18 January, twelve F-15E Strike Eagles deployed from RAF Lakenheath towards the Middle East. The fighters were difficult to follow once they stopped appearing on public tracking, but the refuelling tankers supporting them remained visible. BBC Verify was able to follow the tankers, and at least one F-15, as far as Crete. CENTCOM later confirmed the fighters had arrived in the Middle East.

• Another example appeared later in January. A US V-22 Osprey was tracked near Oman while the location of the USS Abraham Lincoln was receiving attention. An Osprey alone could not confirm the carrier's location, but combined with CENTCOM statements and other information, it provided another clue that the carrier group was operating in the area. The Abraham Lincoln later became heavily involved in operations during the Iran conflict.

• By 17–24 February, the signs were becoming much larger. F-22s, F-35s, tankers, transport aircraft and E-3 Sentry aircraft were being moved towards Europe and the Middle East. The Washington Post reported that more than 150 US military aircraft had moved into the region, using flight-tracking data alongside satellite imagery to build a clearer picture of the build-up.

This raises an interesting OPSEC issue. Hiding a fighter or bomber from Flightradar24 does not necessarily hide everything happening around it. Tankers, transports and other supporting aircraft can still leave clues about a wider operation.

However, a tanker appearing on Flightradar24 does not mean an attack is about to happen. It could be supporting training, deterrence or defensive operations. The value comes from combining several different pieces of information and checking them against other sources.

Looking back at the build-up before the Iran strikes shows how information that seems fairly insignificant on its own can become much more useful when several sources begin pointing in the same direction.

Comparison with Russia's Build-up Before Ukraine war:

A similar example can be seen in the months before Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Russia had not announced that it intended to invade, but its military build-up was becoming increasingly difficult to hide. Commercial satellite imagery showed large concentrations of troops, artillery and support equipment moving towards Ukraine, while videos and photographs of military movements also appeared online.

This provides an interesting comparison with the US build-up before the Iran strikes. The observable indicators were different — Russian ground forces and equipment in Ukraine compared with aircraft, tankers and other supporting assets in the Middle East — but the intelligence principle was similar. A military's intentions may remain secret while the physical preparations required to carry them out leave an observable footprint.